Flex on 'em

A Winning DraftKings Strategy for Deciding Who to Start at the Flex Position

Introduction

Coming away with the top prizes in DFS contests requires more than a lineup optimizer; first you need to iron out every last detail of your lineup strategy. One of those key details is figuring out who you should start at the flex position. For standard NFL contests on DraftKings, the flex position can be filled with a running back, wide receiver, or tight end. Running backs tend to be safer picks with more consistent production, making them generally better picks for cash games like double-up contests. Wide receivers (and tight ends to a lesser degree) have more variance and typically larger upside, making them more natural picks for top-heavy contests. This quick blog post shows an analysis of past contests to break down what the fantasy pros are doing with their flex position to win DraftKings contests.

Flex Position: Analysis of Past Contests

An analysis was done to study the best DFS strategy for the flex position used by top contestants on DraftKings for both double-up and top-heavy contests. Contest data from five weeks of the 2020 season was considered for the all-day Sunday game slate from larger, multi-entry contests (20,000+ for double-up and 200,000+ for top-heavy). The position used in the flex was determined for the top 25 scoring lineups from each contest.

A breakdown of the flex position used in these winning DFS entries are shown below for both the double-up and top-heavy contests. As expected – winning contestants rely on RBs for a higher floor in double-up contests while opting for WRs for a higher ceiling in top-heavy contests. TEs are used relatively infrequently in the flex, but were used about twice as much in top-heavy entries compared to double-ups in the contests analyzed.

Flex position used in winning DraftKings entries

Bottom Line

In summary, basing your DFS flex strategy on contest type is key to winning, and its likely what the fantasy pros are doing every week. Lean toward RBs in the flex in double-up contests for a higher floor and WRs in the flex in top-heavy contests for a higher ceiling. If you want to chance it with a TE or your favorite fantasy sleeper, do so in top-heavy contests.

The Daily Fantasy Optimizer provides a variety of options for controlling your flex. One of the best options when you’re mass-producing lineups with the Daily Fantasy Optimizer is to use the max flex exposure tool to implement the lessons learned from this blog post based on the contest you're entering. Happy optimizing!